The Karnataka Elections - An Assessment

  BJP suffered a major reversal in the Karnataka elections, in spite of having a strong organisation structure, being the government in power and Modi being the face of BJP. What happened that it suffered it's worst ever defeat since 2014. An analysis..

BJB has been completely trounced in the Karnataka elections. The final score, BJP 65 seats compared to Congress 136 seat shows how poor BJB fared in a state which they were ruling with an absolute majority. How did this happen? The mighty BJP caged in it’s own den by the Congress. 

Let us see what went wrong with BJP and right for Congress. 

What let the BJP down:

1.      Strong anti-incumbency:

K   Karnataka has a record of not repeating an incumbent government. Congress was always expected to win. However, BJP did not take steps to counter anti-incumbency by putting in place some of the promises it later made in it’s election manifesto.

2.      No strong local leadership:

BJP had a strong Lingayat leader in Yediyurappa as it’s Chief Minister when BJP wrested power from Congress after the 2018 elections after manoevering defections from Congress and JDS, who had formed the coalition government after the 2018 elections. However, midway, BJP effected a change at the helm and replaced Yadiyurrappa with Bommai after several BJP MLA’s along with Sadanand Gowda levelled corruption charges against him. Yediyurappa, then 78 years, resigned. Unfortunately, BJP did not have any strong second rung local leadership who has a Pan-Karnataka stature like Yediyurappa.

3.      Too much dependence on PM Modi:

BJP has been fighting all the elections, whether at the national level or municipal level, in Modi’s name. PM Modi campaigned very widely across the state. As per several exit poll surveys, around 20% of the voters who cast their vote in favour of BJP, acknowledged  that they voted for BJP because of Modi. In the Greater Bangalore region, where Modi had two road shows, BJP actually increased it’s tally from 11 in 2018 to 15 in 2023.

4.      Quota Rejig:

Redistributing the 4% quota for Muslims with Vokkiligas and Gowdas and shifting Muslims to the EWS quota did not pay any dividend as the order was put on hold due to it being challenged in the Supreme court. People also realized that this exceeded the 50% mark and thus not enforceable due to SC ruling on reservations.

5.      Corruption charges against the state government:

The Karnataka Contractor’s Association had levelled charges that no work gets done in Karnataka without a 40% bribe. BJP could not convince the voters that the charges were false and motivated.

6.      Hindutva card:

BJP relied heavily on the polarization of the Hindu votes. Petty squabbles between BJP and Congress workers where some of the BJP workers died, was given a communal tinge. Even the reference of ban on Bajrang Dal was portrayed by the BJP as an attack on Bajrang bali. This did not go well with the people at large and failed to consolidate the Hindu votes. 

7.      Double engine government:

BJP has been advocating the advantages of having the same party government at the Centre and state. However, this did not work in Karnataka because of the poor performance of the state government.

8.      Distribution of tickets:

BJP has a ready made solution to fight incumbency by denying tickets to the existing MLA’s and replacing them with fresh faces. This also helps in effecting a generational shift in administration. The strategy has worked well in some states, but it failed in Karnataka. Only 14 of the 75 new faces won. 

What worked for Congress:

1.      Strong Anti incumbency:

The main plank of the Congress campaign was bribery – 40% Sarkar. This was reiterated in every meeting and road show by all their leaders. This struck a chord with the voters who were frustrated with rampant corruption.

2.      Strong and united leadership at state level:

Both, D.K. Shivakumar, President of state Congress and Siddharamiah, Leader of Opposition in the assembly, campaigned as a team. The presence of Mallikaarjun Kharge, Congress President, who also belongs to Karnataka, ensured that any difference of opinion between the two was sorted out smoothly. 

3.      Local issues highlighted:

For a change, the campaign highlighted the various local issues faced by the common man, namely, corruption, high cost of fertilizer, increase in cost of LPG cylinder and reduction of monthly allotment of rice to poor man from 10kg to 5 kg. This struck a chord with the voters.

4.      The 5 pre-poll guarantees:

Congress announced the 5 key pre-poll guarantees: 200 units of free power, Rs.2000/- to every female head of the family, 10 kg free rice to every member of BPL household, Rs. 3,000/- per month to unemployed degree holder and Rs. 1,500/- per month to diploma holders for two years and free bus rides for women. It has promised implementation of all the guarantees in the first cabinet meeting.

5.      Bharat Jodo Yatra:

The Bharat Jodo Yatra of Rahul Gandhi, which kicked off in September last year, spent around 21 days in Karnataka traversing around 500 kms.and moving through 51 assembly constituencies. This helped Rahul make a mass connect with the local populace as well energised the party workers. This was reflected in the election result when Congress won 37 out of 51 seats, improving on it’s tally of 18 seats in 2018.

6.      Key support of Lingayat and SC ST communities:

Lingayat constitute an estimated 14% of the electorate and are dominant in 90 of the 224 assembly seats. Congress won many of these seats. The Lingayat community, humiliated after their tallest leader Yediyurappa was forced to resign felt further humiliated after Jagdish Shettiar and Laxman Savadi were denied the ticket and they defected to Congress. The result, Congress increased it’s share of Lingayat MLA’s from 13 in the outgoing assembly to 37. Similarly, SC and ST communities voted majorly for the Congress.  It won 21 SC seats and 8 ST seats , increasing it’s tally from 12 SC seats and 8 ST seats in the outgoing assembly. Here the Congress President, Mallikaarjun Kharge, who himself is a Dalit, played a pivotal role in bringing both communities closer to Congress.

7.      A strong social media team:

Congress appointed a 40 member strong media team headed by former IAS officer Senthil eight months before the elections. He was assisted by Kanugolu, a protégé of Prashant Kishore and provided creative inputs. Narratives like 40% Sarkar and how to drive this point to the common man helped the Congress. 

8.      Complete support of the Congress High command to the local leadership:

Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge as well as Karnataka in-charge Randeep Singh Surjewala provided full support to the state leadership – whether it was ticket distribution or devising local strategy to fight the elections. The team started the groundwork eight months before the elections and devised strategy which was different for various seats. This was in stark contrast to the BJP strategy, which was dictated from Delhi.   

It is now to be seen what lessons BJP learns from it’s dismal performance in Karnataka and how Congress strategizes it’s battle in the elections due in various states this year.